Over the last quarter, I took an interest in Bitcoin and, more broadly, digital assets. What does this new technology that is uniquely global but American-driven look like in a country where lawmakers & regulators finally embrace it with open arms?
Later in 2025, I expect some regulations to come in place with respect to stablecoin issuers, custody and usage. As well as regulations that clarify how tokens may be issued, registered and used for payments. Regulations around how banks can custody and use digital assets.
I was fascinated by institutional adoption of Bitcoin and more specifically, the question of “where is the Bitcoin?” Who holds it? What drives price? Why does it have such volatility where the price may drop straight down and then back up?
I’m starting to build at least some of those answers through BitcoinTop250.com.
The blockchain is a very interesting place. I started going down the rabbit hole and conducting deep research on entity holdings. The first site I found was Arkham. And then CoinMarketCap. And then TimeandChain. I started a spreadsheet noting how many coins were held by different entities. I then discovered sub-entities.
Building out my own database with direct knowledge allowed me to find real answers, the truth, in a world that is often rife with propaganda. For example, one message I have seen a lot around Bitcoin online is that there is going to be a supply squeeze imminent.
But I found this was not the case. I saw charts showing centralized exchange supply drifting from 3 million down toward 2 million over the course of several months. Looking at the onchain data through some of the sites above proved that there were in fact over 3 million coins in CEXs and that this number has not fluctuated all that much during this period.
I also learned for the first time about 13F filings. This allowed me to add more data to the site from a different lens. In additional to maintaining a database of direct Bitcoin-holding institutions, I could now supplement that with a database of institutions that are highly invested in the former.
This gives a clearer picture, for example, of why an institution like BlackRock is accumulating so much Bitcoin. We can now separate out and build a database of large institutions invested in the BlackRock ETF.
When it comes to financial markets, I found that a lot of people “talk their book” which isn’t much of a surprise. Social media drives this as well. There is great information out there, too, but positive information about a risk asset would often get copied by others simply for the engagement.
“Number go up.”
Understanding a risk asset also requires some learning about macroeconomics & market dynamics. Leveraged liquidity where colluding large entities can help drive price into one direction or another. The old stock-to-flow model being replaced more broadly by the power law model. M2 money supply and bank liquidity.
2025 will be an exciting year for digital assets that I expect to get far more interesting in the second half, if not the last quarter. You can follow along on the institutional adoption front at BitcoinTop250.com.